In this article
This page was published in January 2026 forecasting panel price rises of 15 to 20 per cent. We would write the headline differently now. Elsewhere on this site we tell people not to buy on urgency, and a page with “urgency” in the title is not consistent with that, whatever the underlying numbers were doing.
In short
- Two real cost pressures were forecast for 2026: China removing VAT export rebates on PV from 1 April 2026, and silver at a record $83.62 an ounce in late December 2025.
- A third was labour: advertised rates for SAA-accredited electricians in Perth had risen about 20 per cent between July 2025 and January 2026.
- These were forecasts. We are not claiming here what prices actually did — ask for a current quote rather than trusting a nine-month-old projection in either direction.
- A cost pressure is not a reason to sign this week. It is a reason to get the design right, because a badly sized system is more expensive than a price rise.
Forecast cost pressures
The VAT change. China supplies most of the world’s PV modules and announced the removal of value-added tax export rebates for them from 1 April 2026. Removing an export rebate raises the landed cost of a module, and Australia is a price-taker in that market.
Silver. Silver is used in cell metallisation and it hit $83.62 an ounce in late December 2025. That feeds directly into module cost. It is also the pressure that manufacturers have the clearest answer to — silver-free copper metallisation is exactly what the newer all-back-contact platforms use, which is part of why they exist.
Labour. The one people underestimate. Advertised rates for SAA-accredited electricians in Perth were up around a fifth in six months, against a national projection of tens of thousands of additional workers needed by 2030. Panels get cheaper over decades; the licensed person installing them does not.
Rethinking the urgency claim
Our quote guide warns against deadline-driven sales pressure. The same standard should apply to our price coverage, even when the underlying cost pressures are sourced.
Input costs can rise, but a forecast does not establish whether a system suits your home. Check the design and your usage before committing to a purchase you may keep for twenty years.
System sizing and future storage
Not signing early. Getting the sizing right, because the wrong system size is a permanent overpayment, and buying the roof-space efficiency you actually need rather than the efficiency on the brochure.
If you plan to add storage later, compare the future battery options before choosing an inverter. The solar now, battery later pathway explains that decision.
For a current price rather than a forecast, ask for a written quote.
References: Shaw, V. (9 January 2026), “China to abolish solar export tax rebates in April”, PV Magazine. Jowett, P. (29 December 2025), “Silver hits record high of $83.62 an ounce”, PV Magazine. Monaghan, T. (25 July 2024), “Australia’s workforce shortage”, Australian Energy Council. Perth electrician rates from advertised positions, seek.com.au, January 2026.